MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) — The al-Shabab extremist group has exploited Ethiopia’s internal
turmoil to cross the border from neighboring Somalia in unprecedented attacks in recent weeks
that a top U.S. military commander has warned could continue.
The deadly incursions into Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country and long seen as an
anchor of security in the Horn of Africa, are the latest sign of how deeply the recent war in the
northern Tigray region and other ethnic fighting have made the country more vulnerable.
Ethiopia has long resisted such cross-border attacks by the al-Qaida-linked al-Shabab, in part by
deploying troops inside Somalia, where the extremist group controls large rural parts of the
country’s southern and central regions. But the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and its
security forces have struggled with unrest at home especially since the Tigray conflict began in
late 2020.
Experts say al-Shabab, also emboldened by instability under Somalia’s previous administration, is
seizing the chance to expand its footprint and claim the killing of scores of Ethiopian security
forces. But the group is also feeling the pressure of a renewed push by Somalia’s new government
and the return of U.S. forces to the country after their withdrawal by former President Donald
Trump.
The turn to Ethiopia is a significant strategic shift by al-Shabab, Matt Bryden, a security analyst
with the Sahan Foundation think tank, told The Associated Press. The extremist group had never
been able to conduct major operations inside Ethiopia.
“The reports of clashes along the Ethiopia-Somalia border are just a fraction of the overall
picture,” Bryden said. “We understand that planning for this offensive began more than one year
ago, when the Ethiopian government appeared to be on the verge of collapse” as rival Tigray
forces pushed toward the capital, Addis Ababa. Those forces later retreated, and both sides are
edging toward peace talks.
Al-Shabab has trained several thousand fighters for its Ethiopian “command,” mainly ethnic
Somalis and Oromos inside Ethiopia, Bryden asserted. Ethiopia’s federal government has said it
fears al-Shabab will link up with the Oromo Liberation Army, which it has designated a terror
organization, though other security experts have called that unlikely.
Hundreds of al-Shabab fighters were able to slip into Ethiopia last week alone and their presence
has been detected near multiple communities such as El Kari, Jaraati, and Imey, Bryden said. The
incursions began in late July.
“There are also credible reports of al-Shabab units deploying in the direction of Moyale,” the
main border post between Ethiopia and Kenya, he said.
Somalia’s previous president, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, avoided any major confrontation
with al-Shabab. But new President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has said his government will take
the offensive against the group’s thousands of fighters, with the backing of returning U.S. forces.
“Al-Shabab therefore faces a much greater military challenge in Somalia than before and has
therefore embarked on this Ethiopian campaign in order to preserve some of its forces and
establish strategic depth,” Bryden said.
He warned that if al-Shabab establishes a stronghold in southeastern Ethiopia, “the consequences
for peace and security in the region could be very serious indeed.” The fighters would be well-
positioned to strike deeper into Ethiopia, into Kenya and even as far as Uganda to the west. Al-
Shabab has carried out several high-profile deadly attacks inside Kenya over the years.
The outgoing head of the U.S. Africa Command, Gen. Stephen Townsend, last month warned that
al-Shabab’s activities inside Ethiopia were not a “one-off” and said the fighters made it as far as
150 kilometers into the country.
Al-Shabab has long regarded Ethiopia an enemy for its long military presence inside Somalia
countering the fighters. Via its Radio Andalus media arm, the extremist group has claimed killing
at least 187 Ethiopian regional forces and seizing military equipment in its attacks.
Ethiopian officials have expressed alarm. On Tuesday, the country’s Somali regional president,
Mustefa Omer, told a regional assembly that more than 600 al-Shabab fighters have been killed.
The region is in a lengthy war with the extremists, not just a one-time clash, he said, and “the
Ethiopian federal army is currently involved in the fight against the terrorists … and we will also
work with Somalia.”
He said the goal is to create a security buffer inside Somalia to guard against further incursions.
“We should not wait for the enemy to invade,” he said.
Also on Tuesday, the Somali region announced that Ethiopian military officials had arrived in
Somalia’s town of Beledweyne to discuss strategies to counter al-Shabab’s incursion. The
statement said Ethiopia’s soldiers in the African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia will be
deployed against the extremists.
Residents of the Somali town of Yeed near the Ethiopian border told the AP they witnessed losses
suffered by al-Shabab fighters in an Ethiopian attack last week. They spoke on condition of
anonymity out of fear of retribution.
And a resident of Somalia’s Bakool region, Isak Yarow, said Ethiopian military planes have
carried out airstrikes in Garasweyne village in an area where Ethiopian and al-Shabab fighters
have clashed.
Ethiopia’s military has claimed the killing of three prominent al-Shabab figures including its
propaganda chief, but the extremist group has denied it.